Weekly Market Brief: Gold Prices Rally as Dollar Weakens — January 6, 2026

The gold market registered a decisive uptick this week as the US dollar slipped against a basket of major currencies. Spot gold rose by 2.3% over the past five trading days, supported by a mix of macroeconomic and technical factors. Central bank buying remained steady, and net inflows into gold ETFs suggested that investors are repositioning into safe-haven assets after a turbulent year for equities.

Key Drivers This Week

• Dollar weakness: The Dollar Index (DXY) fell by 1.4% as weaker than expected US economic data reduced the probability of near-term rate hikes.
• Central bank demand: Several emerging market central banks disclosed incremental purchases aimed at diversifying reserves away from fiat exposure.
• ETF flows: Global gold ETFs saw net inflows of ~22 tonnes, indicating growing institutional appetite.
• Geopolitical risks: Localized tensions in resource-rich regions prompted safe-haven bids.

Price Action and Technical Notes

Spot gold closed the week near $1,995/oz, approaching the psychological $2,000 level. Technical indicators show momentum building—daily moving averages have begun to slope upwards and Relative Strength Index (RSI) moved out of oversold territory. Traders should note resistance at $2,020 and support at $1,940. A sustained close above $2,020 could open a run toward $2,100, while a reversal below $1,940 might trigger short-term profit-taking.

Market Sentiment

Investor sentiment appears cautiously bullish. Options markets have priced in elevated volatility through Q1 2026, and put-call ratios for gold futures show a modest skew to protective puts. The combination of macro uncertainty and central bank purchases tends to favor gold in the near to medium term.

Supply Fundamentals and Mining

Mining output remains constrained in some regions due to seasonal maintenance and shipping bottlenecks. While primary supply growth is modest, recycling of scrap gold has not returned to pre-pandemic levels, leaving a structural gap that supports prices when demand spikes. The gold-to-equity ratio in mining firms suggests miners may outperform spot if margins expand with higher prices.

What Investors Should Watch Next Week

1. US jobs data: Any surprises in nonfarm payrolls or wage growth could swing the dollar and therefore gold.
2. Fed commentary: Even a slight change in tone about interest rates will affect real yields and gold's appeal.
3. ETF flows: Continued inflows could create sustained demand pressure on spot markets.
4. Emerging market central bank disclosures: Additional purchases would be a structural bullish signal.

"Gold follows the path of least real yield—when inflation expectations outpace nominal rates, the metal tends to strengthen."

Investor Takeaways

For tactical traders, breakouts above key resistance points may offer short-term trade opportunities with defined stop loss levels. Long-term investors should consider rebalancing allocations if gold exits an extended period of underperformance relative to equities. Diversification benefits remain intact: gold continues to reduce portfolio drawdowns during stress events.

Risk Considerations

Volatility remains a risk—prices can reverse quickly if macro data improves or if risk-on sentiment returns. Liquidity in physical markets can tighten around key price levels, raising bid-ask spreads for smaller buyers. Additionally, geopolitical developments can create sharp, short-lived spikes that are difficult to trade without nimble execution.

Featured Charts and Data

On our platform this week we published interactive charts showing: daily spot gold vs. DXY correlation, ETF inflows by region, and miner performance vs. spot. Members can also access our analyst matrix with scenario-based price targets for H1 2026.

Final Word

Gold's rally this week underscores its role as both a crisis hedge and a strategic reserve asset. While near-term volatility is likely, fundamentals and central bank behavior remain supportive. Keep an eye on dollar dynamics and major economic releases—those will continue to dictate the pace and sustainability of the move.